source：Green Car Congress
Demand growth of the 2020s will soon be dwarfed by the astronomical demand growth of the 2030s, according to a new forecast by Adamas Intelligence. Therein lies the real defining challenge and opportunity facing the global rare earth industry today, the company said.
After growing at a CAGR of 6.4% from 2015 through 2019, global consumption of NdFeB alloys and powders will drop by 9.3% in 2020 on account of the ongoing negative effects of COVID-19 on demand for everything from EV traction motors to micromotors and sensors, wind power generators, consumer appliances, cordless powertools and dozens of other end-uses and applications, according to the Adamas forecast.
However, with the ongoing re-opening of key demand markets through the end of 2020 and into 2021, Adamas expects demand for most end-uses and applications to rebound strongly in 2021 and 2022 and thereafter rise steadily through the end of the decade and beyond.
Looking ahead to 2030, Adamas says that it is “exceptionally challenging” to foresee how, under any realistic scenario, the supply-side of the rare earth industry will be able to keep up with rapidly growing demand for magnet rare earths (i.e. neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium).
It’s equally challenging to foresee how the industry will be able to cope with mounting surpluses of other sacrificially overproduced rare earths, such as cerium and lanthanum.
Adamas projects that the rapid demand growth of the 2020s will soon be dwarfed by the astronomical demand growth of the 2030s.